Home prices begin to show a seasonal slowdown; what’s ahead for housing depends on the impact of COVID-19
PR Newswire
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Nov. 19, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — Buyers and sellers quickly jumped back into the market this week after taking a break during election week, according to realtor.com’s Weekly Housing Report for the week ending Nov 14. Despite the resumed interest, home prices are finally showing signs of a seasonal slowdown gaining only 12.6% this week compared to 12.9% the previous week.
“We typically see fewer buyers and sellers in the market toward the end of the year, as families are busy with children in school and holiday celebrations. Although we still have a fast-moving housing market relative to this time last year, we’re starting to see some slowing from the late-summer/fall and movement towards more normal seasonality. What happens next depends on this resurgence of COVID-19. In the spring, we saw that the more coronavirus cases a market had, the less likely sellers were to put their homes on the market. If we are able to contain the spread, sales activity will likely slow somewhat in line with normal seasonality, but otherwise we may see a more abrupt slowdown. “
Home prices remain near summer highs but are finally showing signs of a slowdown
- Median listing prices grew at 12.6% over last year, marking the 14th consecutive week of double-digit price growth. The fact that median listing price growth declined slightly this week suggests that the median asking price is finally moving down from its summer peak of $350,000.
Sellers resumed listing homes as they were before the election
- New listings were down 7%, an improvement from last week’s 12% decline. With fewer home purchases in seasonally slower months, week to week fluctuations in the data can be magnified. The past few weeks suggest that the trend in newly listed homes has worsened slightly from mid-October. Looking forward, there could be a small step back in home sales activity in the months ahead. Earlier in the year, we found that new listings growth was tied closely to coronavirus spread. If that underlying relationship remains, rising coronavirus cases could be a challenge for the housing market in the weeks ahead.
Lack of homes for sale is keeping us in a seller’s market
- Five straight weeks at 38 percent yearly declines in the total number of homes on the market suggests that improvements in the trend of new sellers and buyers have not shifted our current sellers market.
- With limited homes available for sale, those that are on the market continue to sell faster than last year, by roughly 2 weeks. For 8 weeks now, we’ve seen homes sell 13 or 14 days faster than last year. As we discussed last week, we typically see a big increase in time on market before the end of November. Thus, steady decreases in days on market could indicate that we are finally seeing a bit of a seasonal slowdown.
Housing market remains strong as buyer and seller activity bounce back
- Realtor.com® tracks the overall strength of the housing market through its proprietary Housing Market Recovery Index, which compares real-time key indicators including trends in number of searches on realtor.com®, median listing prices, the number of newly listed homes, and the time it takes to sell to January 2020, prior to the pandemic.
- The realtor.com Housing Market Recovery Index increased to 110.7 nationwide for the week ending Nov. 14, 10.7 points above the pre-COVID baseline and an increase of 2.7 points over the prior week. After seeing growth in demand and supply lose momentum earlier in the month, the pace seems to be back on track but still following the seasonal slowdown.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Akron, Ohio |
9.9% |
-51.9% |
12 days faster |
|
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y. |
13.8% |
-37.8% |
15 days faster |
|
Albuquerque, N.M. |
14.9% |
-46.3% |
14 days faster |
|
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J. |
14.1% |
-50.6% |
21 days faster |
|
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga. |
8.2% |
-46.1% |
10 days faster |
|
Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C. |
7.7% |
-51.0% |
29 days faster |
|
Austin-Round Rock, Texas |
19.2% |
-51.3% |
13 days faster |
|
Bakersfield, Calif. |
17.6% |
-46.7% |
18 days faster |
|
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md. |
1.6% |
-52.8% |
13 days faster |
|
Baton Rouge, La. |
13.7% |
-39.7% |
10 days faster |
|
Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. |
0.5% |
-34.6% |
18 days faster |
|
Boise City, Idaho |
21.9% |
-72.3% |
13 days faster |
|
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H. |
12.8% |
-25.6% |
14 days faster |
|
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn. |
0.0% |
-26.7% |
36 days faster |
|
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y. |
10.6% |
-47.1% |
10 days slower |
|
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. |
9.4% |
-42.1% |
7 days faster |
|
Charleston-North Charleston, S.C. |
14.5% |
-44.9% |
25 days faster |
|
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C. |
10.4% |
-48.1% |
14 days faster |
|
Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga. |
8.7% |
-50.6% |
11 days faster |
|
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. |
9.1% |
-31.8% |
8 days faster |
|
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. |
15.3% |
-42.7% |
11 days faster |
|
Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio |
6.5% |
-47.0% |
16 days faster |
|
Colorado Springs, Colo. |
9.0% |
-56.4% |
16 days faster |
|
Columbia, S.C. |
9.3% |
-49.4% |
17 days faster |
|
Columbus, Ohio |
12.7% |
-47.6% |
12 days faster |
|
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas |
5.9% |
-48.5% |
10 days faster |
|
Dayton, Ohio |
11.8% |
-44.3% |
14 days faster |
|
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla. |
6.4% |
-43.7% |
12 days faster |
|
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. |
4.4% |
-45.5% |
8 days faster |
|
Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa |
4.3% |
-31.3% |
11 days faster |
|
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich |
9.6% |
-47.2% |
8 days faster |
|
Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. |
14.0% |
-45.3% |
16 days faster |
|
El Paso, Texas |
19.1% |
-48.7% |
5 days faster |
|
Fresno, Calif. |
9.2% |
-57.9% |
13 days faster |
|
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich |
7.1% |
-47.8% |
5 days faster |
|
Greensboro-High Point, N.C. |
-1.9% |
-50.8% |
17 days faster |
|
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C. |
3.4% |
-40.5% |
10 days faster |
|
Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa. |
15.2% |
-57.9% |
7 days faster |
|
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. |
8.7% |
-29.8% |
22 days faster |
|
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas |
9.8% |
-32.5% |
13 days faster |
|
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind. |
3.5% |
-44.9% |
14 days faster |
|
Jackson, Miss. |
16.1% |
-49.1% |
21 days faster |
|
Jacksonville, Fla. |
1.0% |
-46.8% |
12 days faster |
|
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. |
10.0% |
-46.6% |
14 days faster |
|
Knoxville, Tenn. |
10.5% |
-50.3% |
22 days faster |
|
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla. |
7.6% |
-27.5% |
11 days faster |
|
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev. |
7.6% |
-17.9% |
10 days faster |
|
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark. |
19.4% |
-60.9% |
16 days faster |
|
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif. |
16.3% |
-18.0% |
12 days faster |
|
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind. |
0.0% |
-47.5% |
16 days faster |
|
Madison, Wis. |
4.3% |
-43.8% |
17 days faster |
|
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas |
15.4% |
-41.1% |
25 days faster |
|
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark. |
12.8% |
-51.4% |
12 days faster |
|
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. |
0.2% |
-18.0% |
1 day slower |
|
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. |
3.6% |
-39.9% |
11 days faster |
|
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. |
0.9% |
-30.3% |
8 days faster |
|
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn. |
7.6% |
-46.8% |
9 days faster |
|
New Haven-Milford, Conn. |
11.2% |
-24.7% |
25 days faster |
|
New Orleans-Metairie, La. |
15.8% |
-38.3% |
7 days faster |
|
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. |
11.2% |
-4.6% |
5 days slower |
|
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. |
1.6% |
-40.5% |
13 days faster |
|
Oklahoma City, Okla. |
6.0% |
-41.7% |
5 days faster |
|
Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa |
5.5% |
-45.4% |
1 day slower |
|
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla. |
1.6% |
-21.6% |
No change |
|
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. |
7.9% |
-47.6% |
9 days faster |
|
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla. |
3.4% |
-40.9% |
8 days faster |
|
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. |
15.3% |
-40.3% |
13 days faster |
|
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. |
10.5% |
-42.5% |
8 days faster |
|
Pittsburgh, Pa. |
24.1% |
-39.5% |
11 days faster |
|
Portland-South Portland, Maine |
10.7% |
-45.1% |
30 days faster |
|
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash. |
11.6% |
-42.9% |
10 days faster |
|
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass. |
6.4% |
-50.7% |
14 days faster |
|
Raleigh, N.C. |
6.3% |
-48.1% |
18 days faster |
|
Richmond, Va. |
12.9% |
-47.9% |
7 days faster |
|
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. |
15.9% |
-53.9% |
14 days faster |
|
Rochester, N.Y. |
15.0% |
-41.3% |
13 days faster |
|
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif. |
15.2% |
-46.3% |
18 days faster |
|
Salt Lake City, Utah |
17.3% |
-52.7% |
13 days faster |
|
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas |
4.5% |
-40.7% |
12 days faster |
|
San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. |
9.9% |
-21.8% |
2 days slower |
|
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. |
10.2% |
9.1% |
3 days faster |
|
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. |
10.4% |
-1.5% |
14 days faster |
|
Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, Pa. |
15.6% |
-50.8% |
36 days faster |
|
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. |
8.6% |
-36.7% |
7 days faster |
|
Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash. |
7.1% |
-50.8% |
8 days faster |
|
Springfield, Mass. |
14.6% |
-43.5% |
18 days faster |
|
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. |
9.1% |
-38.9% |
14 days faster |
|
Stockton-Lodi, Calif. |
5.4% |
-64.4% |
8 days faster |
|
Syracuse, N.Y. |
9.8% |
-43.7% |
7 days faster |
|
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. |
7.3% |
-42.8% |
13 days faster |
|
Toledo, Ohio |
0.0% |
-43.0% |
11 days faster |
|
Tucson, Ariz. |
10.5% |
-45.0% |
7 days faster |
|
Tulsa, Okla. |
8.0% |
-39.5% |
9 days faster |
|
Urban Honolulu, Hawaii |
-8.1% |
27.2% |
2 days faster |
|
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. |
5.0% |
-46.8% |
23 days faster |
|
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va. |
5.2% |
-34.2% |
10 days faster |
|
Wichita, Kan. |
9.8% |
-35.4% |
15 days faster |
|
Winston-Salem, N.C. |
0.4% |
-48.2% |
19 days faster |
|
Worcester, Mass.-Conn. |
9.1% |
-51.0% |
25 days faster |
|
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa. |
16.7% |
-52.7% |
24 days faster |
Link to Weekly Stats Blog Post:
https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-nov-14-2020/
Link to Index Commentary Blog Post: https://www.realtor.com/research/housing-market-recovery-index-trends-nov-14-data/
Methodology: The Weekly Housing Index leverages a weighted average of realtor.com® search traffic, median list prices, new listings, and median time on market and compares it to the January 2020 market trend, as a baseline for pre-COVID market growth. The overall index is set to 100 in this baseline period. The higher a market’s index value, the higher its recovery and vice versa.
About realtor.com
®
Realtor.com® makes buying, selling and living in homes easier and more rewarding for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today through its website and mobile apps is a trusted source for the information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Using proprietary data science and machine learning technology, realtor.com® pairs buyers and sellers with local agents in their market, helping take the guesswork out of buying and selling a home. For professionals, realtor.com® is a trusted provider of consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today’s on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.
Media Contacts:
Cody Horvat, [email protected]
View original content:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/realtorcom-weekly-housing-report-buyers-and-sellers-jump-back-in-post-election-301176810.html
SOURCE realtor.com
